I have tried to wrap my mind around what the low score will be at The Open this weekend. It is always fun to muse about how the players will tackle the course. This year, Carnoustie has the potential to see the winner shoot above par. The variables are endless, but analyzing the data is always great fun and the past time of many would-be golfing experts!

Before going on, here his what you think the low score will be on Sunday when the Claret Jug is awarded to the champion:

As you can see, the major of respondents believe that The Open field is going to go low and teach Carnoustie a lesson. I am not convinced.

Of the seven times Carnoustie hosted The Open, only three scores were under par. The most recent winner, Pádraig Harrington (who won in a playoff over Sergio Garcia), shot a consistent 7 under. His second round was a 2 over par 73, so ‘Car-Nasty’ does have a bit is it conditions are right.

Here is how Carnoustie will set up tomorrow. This data is from 2007, but I am confident that the distances are very close. Notably, the last four holes are arguably the toughest finishing stretch in professional golf.

Carnoustie Golf Links – Championship Course

From the History of Carnoustie page the following perfectly describes what the players will be facing starting tomorrow:

It’s not just the strong winds which blow along this exposed stretch of the Angus coast; nor the bunkering, which is perfectly positioned to capture anything less than a top-quality shot; but it is also a very long, narrow golf course that, at over 7,400 yards, is the longest course to host The Open. As Sir Michael Bonallack put it, “When the wind is blowing, it is the toughest golf course in Britain. And when it’s not blowing, it’s probably still the toughest.” (The Open)

On other piece of interesting tidbit is that Tommy Fleetwood, my pick to win this year, holds the course record at -9. I did not know this important piece of information before I made my pick, but it only adds to the reasons why Fleetwood will win the Claret Jug.

As we wait for the start of The Open, most of us will continue to look at the plethora of golf articles being published every minute. It is an exciting time for the golfing world and given this year’s venue, I think that an overall score of minus 4 will be good enough to win the Claret Jug.

What do you think the winning score will be?

I am a grateful golfer! See you on the links!